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"gap_to_structural": 0.0185, "scenarios": { "conservative": { "near_term_risk": 0.0038, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0008 }, "base": { "near_term_risk": 0.0071, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0016 }, "fast_adoption": { "near_term_risk": 0.0142, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0031 } }, "method": "market_calibrated_realized_risk_v3" }, { "ssoc": "13245", "title": "Port/Shipping operations manager", "risk_band": "low", "archetype": "operations_logistics", "short_run_cap_score": 0.26, "offset_potential_score": 0.6009, "offset_potential_band": "medium", "labour_signal": "weak", "employer_pressure_score": 0.36, "labour_softness_score": 0.5981, "postings_support_score": null, "postings_resistance_score": 1, "transition_friction_score": 0.2392, "offset_buffer_score": 0.7277, "demand_persistence_score": 0.2995, "signal_alignment_score": 0.4012, "research_keys": [ "bick_blandin_deming_2025", "humlum_vestergaard_2025", "metr_time_horizons_2026", "anthropic_labor_market_impacts_2026", "imf_occupational_mobility_2024" ], "structural_risk": 0.0754, "base_near_term_risk": 0.0269, "base_realized_risk_proxy": 0.0078, "realization_scalar": 0.2887, "gap_to_structural": 0.0676, "scenarios": { "conservative": { "near_term_risk": 0.0143, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0041 }, "base": { "near_term_risk": 0.0269, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0078 }, "fast_adoption": { "near_term_risk": 0.0536, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0155 } }, "method": "market_calibrated_realized_risk_v3" }, { "ssoc": "13244", "title": "Postal service manager", "risk_band": "low", "archetype": "operations_logistics", "short_run_cap_score": 0.26, "offset_potential_score": 0.6012, "offset_potential_band": "medium", "labour_signal": "weak", "employer_pressure_score": 0.36, "labour_softness_score": 0.5981, "postings_support_score": null, "postings_resistance_score": 1, "transition_friction_score": 0.2387, "offset_buffer_score": 0.7279, "demand_persistence_score": 0.2995, "signal_alignment_score": 0.4011, "research_keys": [ "bick_blandin_deming_2025", "humlum_vestergaard_2025", "metr_time_horizons_2026", "anthropic_labor_market_impacts_2026", "imf_occupational_mobility_2024" ], "structural_risk": 0.0713, "base_near_term_risk": 0.025, "base_realized_risk_proxy": 0.0072, "realization_scalar": 0.2886, "gap_to_structural": 0.0641, "scenarios": { "conservative": { "near_term_risk": 0.0132, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0038 }, "base": { "near_term_risk": 0.025, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0072 }, "fast_adoption": { "near_term_risk": 0.0497, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0144 } }, "method": "market_calibrated_realized_risk_v3" }, { "ssoc": "12191", "title": "Premises and facilities maintenance manager (excluding building security manager)", "risk_band": "low", "archetype": "product_strategy", "short_run_cap_score": 0.38, "offset_potential_score": 0.6758, "offset_potential_band": "medium", "labour_signal": "weak", "employer_pressure_score": 0.042, "labour_softness_score": 0.5981, "postings_support_score": null, "postings_resistance_score": 1, "transition_friction_score": 0.2393, "offset_buffer_score": 0.7641, "demand_persistence_score": 0.529, "signal_alignment_score": 0.2582, "research_keys": [ "bick_blandin_deming_2025", "humlum_vestergaard_2025", "metr_time_horizons_2026", "anthropic_labor_market_impacts_2026", "imf_occupational_mobility_2024" ], "structural_risk": 0.0925, "base_near_term_risk": 0.0326, "base_realized_risk_proxy": 0.0081, "realization_scalar": 0.2497, "gap_to_structural": 0.0844, "scenarios": { "conservative": { "near_term_risk": 0.0173, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0043 }, "base": { "near_term_risk": 0.0326, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0081 }, "fast_adoption": { "near_term_risk": 0.0649, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0162 } }, "method": "market_calibrated_realized_risk_v3" }, { "ssoc": "13410", "title": "Pre-school education manager", "risk_band": "low", "archetype": "teaching_learning", "short_run_cap_score": 0.22, "offset_potential_score": 0.5363, "offset_potential_band": "medium", "labour_signal": "weak", "employer_pressure_score": 0.16, "labour_softness_score": 0.5981, "postings_support_score": null, "postings_resistance_score": 1, "transition_friction_score": 0.3307, "offset_buffer_score": 0.6167, "demand_persistence_score": 0.3115, "signal_alignment_score": 0.3341, "research_keys": [ "bick_blandin_deming_2025", "humlum_vestergaard_2025", "metr_time_horizons_2026", "anthropic_labor_market_impacts_2026", "imf_occupational_mobility_2024" ], "structural_risk": 0.0575, "base_near_term_risk": 0.0202, "base_realized_risk_proxy": 0.0053, "realization_scalar": 0.2614, "gap_to_structural": 0.0522, "scenarios": { "conservative": { "near_term_risk": 0.0107, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0028 }, "base": { "near_term_risk": 0.0202, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0053 }, "fast_adoption": { "near_term_risk": 0.0403, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0105 } }, "method": "market_calibrated_realized_risk_v3" }, { "ssoc": "13242", "title": "Procurement/Purchasing manager", "risk_band": "low", "archetype": "operations_logistics", "short_run_cap_score": 0.26, "offset_potential_score": 0.601, "offset_potential_band": "medium", "labour_signal": "weak", "employer_pressure_score": 0.36, "labour_softness_score": 0.5981, "postings_support_score": 0.224, "postings_resistance_score": 0.8208, "transition_friction_score": 0.239, "offset_buffer_score": 0.7278, "demand_persistence_score": 0.2995, "signal_alignment_score": 0.4012, "research_keys": [ "bick_blandin_deming_2025", "humlum_vestergaard_2025", "metr_time_horizons_2026", "anthropic_labor_market_impacts_2026", "imf_occupational_mobility_2024" ], "structural_risk": 0.0732, "base_near_term_risk": 0.0259, "base_realized_risk_proxy": 0.0065, "realization_scalar": 0.2514, "gap_to_structural": 0.0667, "scenarios": { "conservative": { "near_term_risk": 0.0137, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0035 }, "base": { "near_term_risk": 0.0259, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0065 }, "fast_adoption": { "near_term_risk": 0.0516, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.013 } }, "method": "market_calibrated_realized_risk_v3" }, { "ssoc": "13100", "title": "Production manager in agriculture and fisheries", "risk_band": "very_low", "archetype": "operations_logistics", "short_run_cap_score": 0.26, "offset_potential_score": 0.5579, "offset_potential_band": "medium", "labour_signal": "weak", "employer_pressure_score": 0.36, "labour_softness_score": 0.5981, "postings_support_score": 0.224, "postings_resistance_score": 0.8208, "transition_friction_score": 0.2531, "offset_buffer_score": 0.6479, "demand_persistence_score": 0.2995, "signal_alignment_score": 0.4047, "research_keys": [ "bick_blandin_deming_2025", "humlum_vestergaard_2025", "metr_time_horizons_2026", "anthropic_labor_market_impacts_2026", "imf_occupational_mobility_2024" ], "structural_risk": 0.0102, "base_near_term_risk": 0.0036, "base_realized_risk_proxy": 0.0009, "realization_scalar": 0.259, "gap_to_structural": 0.0093, "scenarios": { "conservative": { "near_term_risk": 0.0019, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0005 }, "base": { "near_term_risk": 0.0036, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0009 }, "fast_adoption": { "near_term_risk": 0.0071, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0018 } }, "method": "market_calibrated_realized_risk_v3" }, { "ssoc": "13292", "title": "Quality control/assurance manager", "risk_band": "low", "archetype": "finance_investing", "short_run_cap_score": 0.48, "offset_potential_score": 0.6017, "offset_potential_band": "medium", "labour_signal": "weak", "employer_pressure_score": 0.165, "labour_softness_score": 0.5981, "postings_support_score": 0.224, "postings_resistance_score": 0.8208, "transition_friction_score": 0.2524, "offset_buffer_score": 0.7327, "demand_persistence_score": 0.319, "signal_alignment_score": 0.3168, "research_keys": [ "bick_blandin_deming_2025", "humlum_vestergaard_2025", "metr_time_horizons_2026", "anthropic_labor_market_impacts_2026", "imf_occupational_mobility_2024" ], "structural_risk": 0.0564, "base_near_term_risk": 0.0198, "base_realized_risk_proxy": 0.0055, "realization_scalar": 0.2802, "gap_to_structural": 0.0509, "scenarios": { "conservative": { "near_term_risk": 0.0105, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0029 }, "base": { "near_term_risk": 0.0198, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0055 }, "fast_adoption": { "near_term_risk": 0.0394, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.011 } }, "method": "market_calibrated_realized_risk_v3" }, { "ssoc": "12213", "title": "Regional sales manager", "risk_band": "low", "archetype": "sales_gtm", "short_run_cap_score": 0.28, "offset_potential_score": 0.59, "offset_potential_band": "medium", "labour_signal": "weak", "employer_pressure_score": 0.054, "labour_softness_score": 0.5981, "postings_support_score": null, "postings_resistance_score": 1, "transition_friction_score": 0.2456, "offset_buffer_score": 0.6998, "demand_persistence_score": 0.319, "signal_alignment_score": 0.2651, "research_keys": [ "bick_blandin_deming_2025", "humlum_vestergaard_2025", "metr_time_horizons_2026", "anthropic_labor_market_impacts_2026", "imf_occupational_mobility_2024" ], "structural_risk": 0.1357, "base_near_term_risk": 0.0483, "base_realized_risk_proxy": 0.0118, "realization_scalar": 0.2448, "gap_to_structural": 0.1239, "scenarios": { "conservative": { "near_term_risk": 0.0256, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0063 }, "base": { "near_term_risk": 0.0483, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0118 }, "fast_adoption": { "near_term_risk": 0.0962, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0236 } }, "method": "market_calibrated_realized_risk_v3" }, { "ssoc": "12230", "title": "Research and development manager", "risk_band": "very_low", "archetype": "product_strategy", "short_run_cap_score": 0.38, "offset_potential_score": 0.6005, "offset_potential_band": "medium", "labour_signal": "weak", "employer_pressure_score": 0.042, "labour_softness_score": 0.5981, "postings_support_score": null, "postings_resistance_score": 1, "transition_friction_score": 0.2504, "offset_buffer_score": 0.7278, "demand_persistence_score": 0.319, "signal_alignment_score": 0.2609, "research_keys": [ "bick_blandin_deming_2025", "humlum_vestergaard_2025", "metr_time_horizons_2026", "anthropic_labor_market_impacts_2026", "imf_occupational_mobility_2024" ], "structural_risk": 0.0151, "base_near_term_risk": 0.0054, "base_realized_risk_proxy": 0.0014, "realization_scalar": 0.2676, "gap_to_structural": 0.0137, "scenarios": { "conservative": { "near_term_risk": 0.0028, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0008 }, "base": { "near_term_risk": 0.0054, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0014 }, "fast_adoption": { "near_term_risk": 0.0107, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0029 } }, "method": "market_calibrated_realized_risk_v3" }, { "ssoc": "14121", "title": "Restaurant manager", "risk_band": "moderate", "archetype": "service_hospitality", "short_run_cap_score": 0.14, "offset_potential_score": 0.4973, "offset_potential_band": "medium", "labour_signal": "weak", "employer_pressure_score": 0.16, "labour_softness_score": 0.5981, "postings_support_score": 0.224, "postings_resistance_score": 0.8208, "transition_friction_score": 0.2872, "offset_buffer_score": 0.5145, "demand_persistence_score": 0.3115, "signal_alignment_score": 0.3232, "research_keys": [ "bick_blandin_deming_2025", "humlum_vestergaard_2025", "metr_time_horizons_2026", "anthropic_labor_market_impacts_2026", "imf_occupational_mobility_2024" ], "structural_risk": 0.1717, "base_near_term_risk": 0.0612, "base_realized_risk_proxy": 0.0128, "realization_scalar": 0.2097, "gap_to_structural": 0.1589, "scenarios": { "conservative": { "near_term_risk": 0.0325, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0068 }, "base": { "near_term_risk": 0.0612, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0128 }, "fast_adoption": { "near_term_risk": 0.122, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0256 } }, "method": "market_calibrated_realized_risk_v3" }, { "ssoc": "14201", "title": "Retail manager", "risk_band": "low", "archetype": "service_hospitality", "short_run_cap_score": 0.14, "offset_potential_score": 0.5843, "offset_potential_band": "medium", "labour_signal": "weak", "employer_pressure_score": 0.16, "labour_softness_score": 0.5981, "postings_support_score": null, "postings_resistance_score": 1, "transition_friction_score": 0.2459, "offset_buffer_score": 0.6917, "demand_persistence_score": 0.3115, "signal_alignment_score": 0.3129, "research_keys": [ "bick_blandin_deming_2025", "humlum_vestergaard_2025", "metr_time_horizons_2026", "anthropic_labor_market_impacts_2026", "imf_occupational_mobility_2024" ], "structural_risk": 0.1138, "base_near_term_risk": 0.0405, "base_realized_risk_proxy": 0.009, "realization_scalar": 0.2225, "gap_to_structural": 0.1048, "scenarios": { "conservative": { "near_term_risk": 0.0215, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0048 }, "base": { "near_term_risk": 0.0405, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.009 }, "fast_adoption": { "near_term_risk": 0.0808, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.018 } }, "method": "market_calibrated_realized_risk_v3" }, { "ssoc": "12133", "title": "Risk management manager", "risk_band": "very_low", "archetype": "product_strategy", "short_run_cap_score": 0.38, "offset_potential_score": 0.6909, "offset_potential_band": "high", "labour_signal": "weak", "employer_pressure_score": 0.042, "labour_softness_score": 0.5981, "postings_support_score": null, "postings_resistance_score": 1, "transition_friction_score": 0.2406, "offset_buffer_score": 0.7989, "demand_persistence_score": 0.529, "signal_alignment_score": 0.2585, "research_keys": [ "bick_blandin_deming_2025", "humlum_vestergaard_2025", "metr_time_horizons_2026", "anthropic_labor_market_impacts_2026", "imf_occupational_mobility_2024" ], "structural_risk": 0.0186, "base_near_term_risk": 0.0066, "base_realized_risk_proxy": 0.0016, "realization_scalar": 0.2462, "gap_to_structural": 0.017, "scenarios": { "conservative": { "near_term_risk": 0.0035, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0009 }, "base": { "near_term_risk": 0.0066, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0016 }, "fast_adoption": { "near_term_risk": 0.0132, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0033 } }, "method": "market_calibrated_realized_risk_v3" }, { "ssoc": "12211", "title": "Sales manager", "risk_band": "low", "archetype": "sales_gtm", "short_run_cap_score": 0.28, "offset_potential_score": 0.5956, "offset_potential_band": "medium", "labour_signal": "weak", "employer_pressure_score": 0.054, "labour_softness_score": 0.5981, "postings_support_score": 0.224, "postings_resistance_score": 0.8208, "transition_friction_score": 0.2374, "offset_buffer_score": 0.7032, "demand_persistence_score": 0.319, "signal_alignment_score": 0.2631, "research_keys": [ "bick_blandin_deming_2025", "humlum_vestergaard_2025", "metr_time_horizons_2026", "anthropic_labor_market_impacts_2026", "imf_occupational_mobility_2024" ], "structural_risk": 0.1471, "base_near_term_risk": 0.0523, "base_realized_risk_proxy": 0.0112, "realization_scalar": 0.2142, "gap_to_structural": 0.1359, "scenarios": { "conservative": { "near_term_risk": 0.0278, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0059 }, "base": { "near_term_risk": 0.0523, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0112 }, "fast_adoption": { "near_term_risk": 0.1043, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0223 } }, "method": "market_calibrated_realized_risk_v3" }, { "ssoc": "13451", "title": "School principal", "risk_band": "very_low", "archetype": "teaching_learning", "short_run_cap_score": 0.22, "offset_potential_score": 0.583, "offset_potential_band": "medium", "labour_signal": "weak", "employer_pressure_score": 0.16, "labour_softness_score": 0.5981, "postings_support_score": null, "postings_resistance_score": 1, "transition_friction_score": 0.3129, "offset_buffer_score": 0.7155, "demand_persistence_score": 0.3115, "signal_alignment_score": 0.3297, "research_keys": [ "bick_blandin_deming_2025", "humlum_vestergaard_2025", "metr_time_horizons_2026", "anthropic_labor_market_impacts_2026", "imf_occupational_mobility_2024" ], "structural_risk": 0.0168, "base_near_term_risk": 0.0059, "base_realized_risk_proxy": 0.0015, "realization_scalar": 0.2508, "gap_to_structural": 0.0153, "scenarios": { "conservative": { "near_term_risk": 0.0031, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0008 }, "base": { "near_term_risk": 0.0059, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0015 }, "fast_adoption": { "near_term_risk": 0.0118, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.003 } }, "method": "market_calibrated_realized_risk_v3" }, { "ssoc": "12194", "title": "Security manager", "risk_band": "low", "archetype": "product_strategy", "short_run_cap_score": 0.38, "offset_potential_score": 0.675, "offset_potential_band": "medium", "labour_signal": "weak", "employer_pressure_score": 0.042, "labour_softness_score": 0.5981, "postings_support_score": null, "postings_resistance_score": 1, "transition_friction_score": 0.2405, "offset_buffer_score": 0.7636, "demand_persistence_score": 0.529, "signal_alignment_score": 0.2584, "research_keys": [ "bick_blandin_deming_2025", "humlum_vestergaard_2025", "metr_time_horizons_2026", "anthropic_labor_market_impacts_2026", "imf_occupational_mobility_2024" ], "structural_risk": 0.0879, 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distribution/Logistics/Warehousing manager", "risk_band": "low", "archetype": "operations_logistics", "short_run_cap_score": 0.26, "offset_potential_score": 0.6022, "offset_potential_band": "medium", "labour_signal": "weak", "employer_pressure_score": 0.36, "labour_softness_score": 0.5981, "postings_support_score": 0.224, "postings_resistance_score": 0.8208, "transition_friction_score": 0.2373, "offset_buffer_score": 0.7285, "demand_persistence_score": 0.2995, "signal_alignment_score": 0.4007, "research_keys": [ "bick_blandin_deming_2025", "humlum_vestergaard_2025", "metr_time_horizons_2026", "anthropic_labor_market_impacts_2026", "imf_occupational_mobility_2024" ], "structural_risk": 0.0754, "base_near_term_risk": 0.0265, "base_realized_risk_proxy": 0.0067, "realization_scalar": 0.2512, "gap_to_structural": 0.0687, "scenarios": { "conservative": { "near_term_risk": 0.0141, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0035 }, "base": { "near_term_risk": 0.0265, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0067 }, "fast_adoption": { "near_term_risk": 0.0529, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0133 } }, "method": "market_calibrated_realized_risk_v3" }, { "ssoc": "13291", "title": "Technical/Engineering services manager (excluding transport)", "risk_band": "low", "archetype": "operations_logistics", "short_run_cap_score": 0.26, "offset_potential_score": 0.5977, "offset_potential_band": "medium", "labour_signal": "weak", "employer_pressure_score": 0.36, "labour_softness_score": 0.5981, "postings_support_score": 0.224, "postings_resistance_score": 0.8208, "transition_friction_score": 0.2482, "offset_buffer_score": 0.7303, "demand_persistence_score": 0.2995, "signal_alignment_score": 0.4035, "research_keys": [ "bick_blandin_deming_2025", "humlum_vestergaard_2025", "metr_time_horizons_2026", "anthropic_labor_market_impacts_2026", "imf_occupational_mobility_2024" ], "structural_risk": 0.0581, "base_near_term_risk": 0.0203, "base_realized_risk_proxy": 0.0051, "realization_scalar": 0.2521, "gap_to_structural": 0.053, "scenarios": { "conservative": { "near_term_risk": 0.0108, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0027 }, "base": { "near_term_risk": 0.0203, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0051 }, "fast_adoption": { "near_term_risk": 0.0405, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0102 } }, "method": "market_calibrated_realized_risk_v3" }, { "ssoc": "12123", "title": "Training manager", "risk_band": "moderate", "archetype": "product_strategy", "short_run_cap_score": 0.38, "offset_potential_score": 0.571, "offset_potential_band": "medium", "labour_signal": "weak", "employer_pressure_score": 0.042, "labour_softness_score": 0.5981, "postings_support_score": null, "postings_resistance_score": 1, "transition_friction_score": 0.2363, "offset_buffer_score": 0.6479, "demand_persistence_score": 0.319, "signal_alignment_score": 0.2574, "research_keys": [ "bick_blandin_deming_2025", "humlum_vestergaard_2025", "metr_time_horizons_2026", "anthropic_labor_market_impacts_2026", "imf_occupational_mobility_2024" ], "structural_risk": 0.1623, 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"bick_blandin_deming_2025", "humlum_vestergaard_2025", "metr_time_horizons_2026", "anthropic_labor_market_impacts_2026", "imf_occupational_mobility_2024" ], "structural_risk": 0.0699, "base_near_term_risk": 0.0249, "base_realized_risk_proxy": 0.0072, "realization_scalar": 0.2886, "gap_to_structural": 0.0627, "scenarios": { "conservative": { "near_term_risk": 0.0132, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0038 }, "base": { "near_term_risk": 0.0249, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0072 }, "fast_adoption": { "near_term_risk": 0.0497, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0143 } }, "method": "market_calibrated_realized_risk_v3" }, { "ssoc": "14392", "title": "Travel agency manager", "risk_band": "very_low", "archetype": "service_hospitality", "short_run_cap_score": 0.14, "offset_potential_score": 0.5982, "offset_potential_band": "medium", "labour_signal": "weak", "employer_pressure_score": 0.16, "labour_softness_score": 0.5981, "postings_support_score": null, "postings_resistance_score": 1, "transition_friction_score": 0.2964, "offset_buffer_score": 0.7463, "demand_persistence_score": 0.3115, "signal_alignment_score": 0.3255, "research_keys": [ "bick_blandin_deming_2025", "humlum_vestergaard_2025", "metr_time_horizons_2026", "anthropic_labor_market_impacts_2026", "imf_occupational_mobility_2024" ], "structural_risk": 0.028, "base_near_term_risk": 0.01, "base_realized_risk_proxy": 0.0022, "realization_scalar": 0.2226, "gap_to_structural": 0.0258, "scenarios": { "conservative": { "near_term_risk": 0.0053, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0012 }, "base": { "near_term_risk": 0.01, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0022 }, "fast_adoption": { "near_term_risk": 0.0199, "realized_risk_proxy": 0.0044 } }, "method": "market_calibrated_realized_risk_v3" }, { "ssoc": "14324", "title": "Wellness centre manager (e.g. hair/beauty/slimming/spa/manicure/massage)", "risk_band": "very_low", "archetype": "service_hospitality", "short_run_cap_score": 0.14, "offset_potential_score": 0.5877, "offset_potential_band": "medium", 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